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Urban Violence Prevention Amid Global Uncertainty: How Cities Are Navigating Global Trends While Investing in Local Safety

New technologies, rising authoritarianism, climate change, and the unraveling multilateral system threaten safety and security at all levels. Cities will feel these global shifts most immediately. This compendium supports city leaders in responding to these trends while implementing evidence-based approaches to violence prevention across a spectrum of safety-related factors, such as political violence, organized crime, access to justice, and fair housing and land policies.

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Urban Violence Prevention Amid Global Uncertainty: How Cities Are Navigating Global Trends While Investing in Local Safety argues that the future of urban safety will be shaped not only by local violence trends, but by powerful global forces: rising authoritarianism, AI and technological advancement and disruption, climate change, and the weakening of international cooperation. Intended for city leaders, policymakers, practitioners, and civil society partners, the compendium positions cities not as passive recipients of these pressures but as frontline actors capable of preventing violence, strengthening trust, and building resilience at home and globally. Drawing on examples from cities across Latin America, Africa, Europe, and North America, it offers a practical roadmap for considering how governance, planning, justice systems, technology policy, and climate adaptation must integrate with violence prevention during these times.

At its core, the compendium makes the case that safety is not achieved through repression alone, but through institutions that are trusted, inclusive, and capable of responding to complex challenges. Each chapter provides analysis of the issue, its connection to contemporary global trends, and a series of recommendations to help cities move beyond reactive responses and create the conditions for lasting peace, safety, and democratic resilience. Such recommendations include:

  • Chapter 1: Cities Under Pressure, by Enrique Betancourt 
    Build permanent cross-sector coordination structures that bring together public safety, health, education, social services, and community actors around a shared understanding of violence and a coordinated response.
  • Chapter 2: Organized Crime as Urban Governance: How Criminal Groups Rule Cities and What Local Governments Can Do, by Santiago Tobón
    Address organized crime as a governance challenge, not just a crime problem, by strengthening municipal services, dispute resolution, and legitimate state presence in neighborhoods where criminal groups fill governance gaps.
  • Chapter 3: Under Attack: The Enduring Impact of Political Violence and How Cities Are Pushing Back, by Rachel Locke
    Monitor and prepare for political violence before it escalates by tracking risks, strengthening local social cohesion, and proactively countering disinformation and divisive narratives.
  • Chapter 4: Technology-Empowered Urban Violence Prevention in the Era of AI, by Luisa Portugal
    Use technology and AI to improve violence prevention while ensuring transparency, community participation, human oversight, and protections against bias and abuse.
  • Chapter 5: Harnessing the Justice System to Reduce Violence in Cities in Times of Global Uncertainty and Technological Change, by Juan Camilo Cock Misas
    Expand access to justice and community-based dispute resolution so residents can resolve conflicts through legitimate institutions rather than violence or criminal actors.
  • Chapter 6: Police and Community Trust in Contested Urban Spaces: Pitfalls and Policy Lessons, by Patrick Mutahi
    Make police accountability the foundation of community policing by ensuring fairness, transparency, and consequences for misconduct.
  • Chapter 7: Predatory Urbanization: Urban Land and Housing as Targets for Armed Groups and Mafias, by Antônio Sampaio
    Strengthen land tenure, housing governance, and community consultation mechanisms to prevent criminal groups, militias, and corrupt actors from exploiting urban land and housing markets.
  • Chapter 8: Climate Change, Urban Safety, and Violence: What City Leaders Need to Know, by Jessica Varat
    Integrate public safety into climate adaptation planning, including heat-action plans, disaster preparedness, migration management, and water governance strategies.